October Newsletter: Valuation Contraction Starting

October Newsletter: Valuation Contraction Starting

Summary: The market’s recent action represents the tension between very strong economic and corporate earnings growth & positive price momentum with reasons to expect slower growth next year including (most significantly, in our opinion) lapping tax reform, rising interest rates, and (modest) inflation in labor rates. We see tariffs and political acrimony more as a distraction than a giant concern. Longer-term deficit spending is a worry. Our advice: lower your expectations for near-term market returns but stay involved.

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