May Newsletter: Trade War Torpedoes Market’s Advance

May Newsletter: Trade War Torpedoes Market’s Advance

Summary: Trade-related disputes and uncertainty will not derail economic growth, in our opinion. The market (the S&P500) has given back nearly 5% after hitting all time high levels on May 1 in response to the back-and-forth imposition of import tariffs between China and the U.S. The world’s two largest economies bickering cannot be construed as a positive. However, contextualizing this dispute suggests that the risk to world economic growth is likely overstated, in our opinion. Our base assumption is that the negotiating process will cause some disruption but not overturn the current favorable momentum of the U.S. consumer and U.S. economy nor reverse the share gains of companies with superior strategies or technologies.

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