January 2020 Newsletter: Resolution of Uncertainty on Trade Wars, Now What?

January 2020 Newsletter: Resolution of Uncertainty on Trade Wars, Now What?

Summary: The debate over the past year has considered on one hand consistently strong employment growth and consumer spending (2/3 of U.S. economic activity), and on the other slowing corporate earnings growth and risks including the impact of trade disputes, potential increased regulation for big tech (Facebook, Google, etc.), and actions of the Federal Reserve. The threat from the Fed was reversed early in 2019 when it pivoted to cutting rates (and thus providing stimulus) from raising rates. However, it wasn’t until last week with the signing of both the USMCA (United States Mexico Canada Agreement) and Phase 1 of a deal with China that 2019’s most powerful fear-based narrative on trade disputes lost its force.

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